Make the right call, every week.
Projections with their likely range for every player, start/sit win probabilities, a waiver board that knows your roster, and a draft board that knows your picks. Every call is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
- QBCaleb WilliamsCHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET 17.8 1030
- RBD'Andre SwiftCHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET 13.0 523
- WRDeVonta SmithPHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET 13.2 424
- TEDallas GoedertPHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET 5.9 115
- 4 of 4positions where Fader's projections beat a player's recent average
- 77–84%of real scores landed inside Fader's likely range
- 3.0×less error than ADP at predicting who is left at your pick
The first two tested on the 2025 season, using only what was known before each game; the draft figure is this season's draft, graded pick by pick.
Every weekly call, in one place.
In every account
Week view
Your whole lineup with a projection and likely range for every player, injury status, and live scoring once games start.
Before kickoff
Fader refreshes again after inactives are posted, before each slate kicks off, so your last look is its latest.
Your league, as it is
ESPN and Sleeper leagues by ID, or any league entered by hand, scored with your league's own rules.
Start or sit
For every open slot, the probability each player outscores the other, and a plain answer when it is too close to call.
Where paid goes further Compare free and paid
Every league
All the leagues you play in, each with its own week view, scored by its own rules.
One league free; every league on paidWaivers
Who is on your wire and why, ranked by what a claim is worth to your lineup over the next four weeks, with the drop it costs you.
The pool is free; the rankings are paidDraft board
The chance each player is still there at every one of your picks, so you know who can wait a round.
One board a season free; every league on paid
- WRKaden DavisCHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET 0.0 00
- WRZavion ThomasCHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET 0.0 00
Too close to call. Start either one.
Start or sit, and how sure to be.
Fader plays out both players' weeks 20,000 times and tells you how often each one comes out ahead. A 70% call and a 52% call are different decisions, and you see which one you are making.
On the left, this week's closest pair among the top 12 receivers. Replayed on the 2025 season (partly in-sample), the stated probabilities came true about as often as they said. See the replay.
A model built on opportunity.
Opportunity
Targets, carries and pass attempts: what each player is given.
Efficiency, regressed
What he does with it, pulled toward what the league sustains, so one big week is not a trend.
The game
The betting market's implied team total, the wind at kickoff, and for quarterbacks the defense.
The range
A likely low and high from how far projections like his really missed.
Tested week by week on 2025 with only what was known before each game, the core projection landed closer to the real score than a player's own last four games, at every position.
| Position | Fader | Last four games | |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 6.5 pts | 6.9 pts | 6% closer |
| RB | 4.1 pts | 4.3 pts | 3% closer |
| WR | 3.7 pts | 3.9 pts | 6% closer |
| TE | 3.1 pts | 3.3 pts | 7% closer |
Graded in public, misses included.
Every projection, range and call is written to a ledger before kickoff and scored after the game, and the record is public. Here is how often a player's real score landed inside his likely range on 2025, a season the ranges never saw, for projections of 3 points or more. The target is 80%.
- QB 77% 520 player-weeks
- RB 77% 924 player-weeks
- WR 84% 1,448 player-weeks
- TE 83% 625 player-weeks
The notch on each bar marks the 80% target. QB and RB too narrow, WR and TE too wide, by the test on the record. The full record
Free is the product, not a demo.
- 1 league, with the week view
- 1 draft board a season
- The waiver pool: who is available, and why
- Every projection's 80% range
- Start/sit win probabilities for every open decision, graded afterwards
- Injury status and warnings
- “Too close to call”, with the reason
- The public record, misses included
Your league, by its ID.
Paste the league ID from its ESPN or Sleeper address. Fader reads the league's public data, the same page anyone can open. It never asks for your password or your platform login.